Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Ax man

Have the Indians found their new closer?
The Indians have been searching for an answer for their closer role since the final week of the regular season. Cleveland is taking a chance on John Axford with the hope that he can rekindle his career as one of the game's elite stoppers.

According to multiple sources, the Indians have reached an agreement with free-agent Axford on a one-year contract worth $4.5 million for the 2014 season, pending the completion of a physical on Wednesday. The pact would include another $1.75 million in incentives based on games finished.

The Indians have not made any official comment about the deal.

The Indians were in talks with Axford, along with a handful of other experienced late-inning arms, during the Winter Meetings last week. A former closer for the Brewers, the 30-year-old Axford lost his role in Milwaukee and was traded to St. Louis in August, finishing the season strong out of the Cardinals' bullpen.

With Cleveland, Axford is expected to step into the ninth-inning role after the Indians released their former closer, Chris Perez, on Oct. 31. The Indians have expressed confidence in having either Cody Allen or Bryan Shaw assume the closing duties, but manager Terry Francona indicated during the Winter Meetings that his preference was to keep the pair of right-handers in setup roles.

"I think [Allen] could handle it with very little hiccups," Francona said last week. "Saying that, I'm not sure that that puts our ballclub in the best position to win. At an early age, we used him in so many high-leverage situations. From the sixth inning on, bases loaded, snuff out a rally, we basically went to Cody. Right- or left-handed didn't matter. He was so good at it, and I would think he'll only continue to get better. It's hard to lose that guy.

"That one guy can make your whole bullpen so much better. So many times you get a save situation, it could be a three-run game with nobody on and the game's already been lost in the seventh or eighth. Same thing [with Shaw]. He could do it in the ninth, no doubt. But, what he does earlier is valuable."

The Indians have also been in contact with free-agent closers such as Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney, among others. Cleveland also extended an offer to Edward Mujica, but he ultimately signed a two-year contract with the Red Sox.

A one-year deal for Axford makes sense for both sides, considering he has two more years of arbitration eligibility following next season.

Perez was eligible for arbitration this offseason, but he lost his job as Cleveland's closer in the final week of the regular season. In 54 games, Perez posted career worsts in ERA (4.33) and WHIP (1.43), making his expected salary (anticipated to be over $9 million) too inflated for his diminished role. The Indians opted to cut ties with Perez, who had an 88-percent save rate (123-for-140) over the past four seasons.

Last season, Axford posted a 4.02 ERA in 75 games (65 innings) between stints with the Brewers and Cardinals, piling up 65 strikeouts against 26 walks. The righty had a 4.45 ERA and was 0-for-6 in save chances in 62 games for Milwaukee, which dealt him to St. Louis on Aug. 30. Down the stretch, Axford posted a 1.74 ERA with 11 strikeouts and three walks in 10 1/3 innings.

Axford's best season came in 2011, when he fashioned a 1.95 ERA and saved 46 games during the Brewers' run to the postseason. Across the 2010-11 campaigns, he had a 2.19 ERA in 124 games (131 2/3 innings) and a stellar 93-percent save rate (70-for-75). Over the past two years, though, Axford has posted a 4.35 ERA in 150 games (134 1/3 innings) with a 69-percent conversion rate (35-for-51).

Even with his recent struggles, Axford offers more ninth-inning experience than Cleveland's current crop of relievers. Besides releasing Perez, the Indians also lost setup man Joe Smith to the Angels (three years, $15.75 million) in free agency. Vinnie Pestano, who endured his own mound woes last season, leads the current Tribe bullpen (on the 40-man roster) in big league saves with 11 in his career. Shaw is next on that list with three saves.

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